pragmatist

Hi, Looking for predictions (and supporting arguments) for numbers
that Linux will achieve next year. For example I think it's going to
reach at least 15% of the desktop by the end of 2004, from about 2%
now. The main reason the prediction's this high is because suddenly
giants like Novell, Sun, HP and IBM are actively pushing the system
for the desktop, when none of them were six months ago (well, maybe
HP, not sure about that one). The reason it's not higher is because
large organisations are slow to change established systems, and it is
chiefly large organisations - esp. in the public sector - that are
leading the march of the penguin on to the desktop.

Other reasons include:
- The very integrated and intuitive feel that is starting to creep
into most major distributions.
- All those whacky third world governments with their crazy notions of
not paying the Microsoft tax.
- 2.6 (any time now) which seems to be getting excellent reviews, not
that I understand kernels.
- SCO's legal defeat will get a fair bit of press. There may also be a
well publicised investigation into what some people believe has been
deliberate disinformation campaign with no purpose other than
artificially inflating stock prices so certain people could get rich
as the company was committing suicide.
- OpenOffice. Man I love that program except for its initial startup
time. Never was it so easy (and free) to create a document and publish
it as html, doc, txt, pdf, and sxw on whatever platform you've already
got. I know you know, I'm just saying.

Maybe you think I'm crazy (or "optimistic" if you want to be polite
about it) which is why I'm putting my prediction in a public and
permanent medium like usenet so we'll see who's crazy :)